Bristol Safety Valve £35.5 Million Off Track
Bristol Send Spend Fail – The DSG deficit is not heading towards zero as promised
Bristol City Council is still failing to get to grips with its spend on Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (Send).
The council says that the forecast for deficits on its Dedicated Schools Grant budget is £25.5 million in 2025/26
The reason for this, the council says, is that ‘increasing numbers’ of children and young people with Education Health Care Plans (EHCP) are being placed in ‘high-cost’ independent provision. This is due to a ‘current’ lack of Send places in local authority maintained provision. There are also ‘associated’ issues with EHCP top-up funding to schools and ‘delays’ in new local specialist provision.’
Papers to Bristol Schools Forum authored by Steven Goodwin for the DSG Budget Monitor Quarter 1, shows a forecast of £25.5 million overspend in 2025/26.
The recommendation for the paper is for School Forum members to note the forecast position as it was at the end of May 2025.
The DSG funding is split into four blocks: Early Years, Schools Block, High Needs Block, Central Block.
In March 2024, Bristol City Council heralded £50m in Safety Valve Funding. At the time, Executive Director for Children and Education Hannah Woodhouse said: “The point about the Safety Valve Programme is that it is a deal done with Government which is about investment in Special Educational Needs from government and from Bristol City Council.
“It means we will have no deficit. If we then manage to work together to be able to invest our resources sustainably and equitably for all children with Special Educational Needs. That’s the basis of the Safety Valve.”
But the current forecast shows a cumulative forecast deficit on the DSG as £76.8 million. This is £35.5 million ‘off track’ from the original estimated deficit of £41.3 million for 2024/26 agreed with the Department for Education in its agreement in Bristol’s Safety Valve.
Papers say: ‘Overall, after the 2025/26 Department for Education and Bristol City Council Safety Valve Agreement contributions, the DSG is forecast to have an adverse in-year variance to planned budget of £25.5 million, representing a forecast overspend of 4.7%.’
‘Including the balance brought forward from the previous year, the cumulative forecast deficit on the DSG is £76.8 million which is £35.5 million off track from the original estimated deficit of £41.3 million for 2025/26 that was included in the Safety Valve agreement with the DfE.
‘The forecast includes an in-year overspend of £25.4 million on the High Needs Block, which is due to both the increasing numbers of children and young people with Education Health and Care Plans (EHCPs) being placed in high-cost Independent Non-Maintained Schools resulting from a current lack of sufficiency of local maintained provision, together with associated EHCP top-up funding to schools and academies, and also from delays in the development of new local provision. Schools Block is forecasting an in-year balanced position.
‘Central Schools Services Block (CSSB) is currently forecasting an adverse in-year position with a £0.1 million overspend.
‘Early Years is currently forecasting a net in-year balanced position.
‘Bristol City Council formally joined the Safety Valve programme at the end of 2023/24. Whilst the forecast overspend in the DSG is continuing to grow, the Safety Valve programme is developing mitigations to meet demand for SEND support within available fund.’
Bristol Schools Forum will take place on Tuesday 30 September at 5pm.
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